sUSDat — Risk Report
Significant risk · 3.0/10
Yield-bearing vault share · Predominantly off-chain STRC exposure · Saturn Labs.
Live reserve, NAV and exit dashboard
Summary
sUSDat is Saturn’s ERC-4626 share token. Users deposit USDat, and Saturn allocates most of the economic reserve to STRC, Strategy’s variable-rate perpetual preferred stock. A smaller on-chain USDat balance provides liquidity. The share’s value reflects the reserve’s reported value and vested income, so STRC losses can reduce principal as well as yield.
At 2026-10-14 03:45 UTC, the vault reported $59.32M of assets on 56.68M shares, giving NAV of 1.046723 USDat per share. The measured USDat buffer was $2.77M, or 4.67% of reported assets. The remaining 95.33% is an implied, unverified off-chain STRC claim. The Curve price was $1.036051, about 1.02% below NAV; both price and NAV were above one dollar.
The 3.0 overall score is below the six-axis mean of 3.17. Concentrated backing, limited public exit capacity and an unmatched live implementation constrain the assessment. The scores incorporate the October 13 Contract & Admin assessment and are carried through this measurement refresh.
1 · Stability — 3.5
sUSDat accrues value in USDat rather than maintaining a fixed dollar peg. The reported share value is 1.046723 USDat, while the measured secondary price is $1.036051. Comparing price with NAV gives the 1.02% discount; comparing either with the original one-dollar issuance reference answers a separate question. Dated observations
The historical NAV reached approximately 0.8930 USDat in July, a 10.7% decline against the issuance reference, as STRC lost value. Its subsequent recovery demonstrates that the wrapper passes through reserve revaluation in both directions. A higher exchange rate does not independently verify the assets behind it.
Saturn’s published design vests income over 30 days and adds it to the share exchange rate. The historically quoted approximately 11% yield target is not a current realized rate or a guaranteed return. Vault overview
Risks and limitations. Most reported NAV rests on an off-chain mark. STRC dividends, its market price, reserve allocation and withdrawals all affect share value. Positive NAV and a narrow market discount do not establish capital protection or uninterrupted exit. The carried 3.5 reflects demonstrated principal volatility and limited mark verification.
2 · Backing — 2.5
The reserve consists of a directly measured USDat balance and the remainder of the vault’s reported asset value. The October 14 split is:
| Reserve component | Value | Share of reported assets | Evidence basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| On-chain USDat | $2,768,317.35 | 4.67% | Token balance |
| Implied off-chain STRC claim | $56,555,748.11 | 95.33% | Reported assets minus USDat balance |
| Total reported assets | $59,324,065.46 | 100% | Vault reporting |
The off-chain figure is a residual valuation, not an independently counted holding or a live third-party attestation. It does not identify the custodian’s exact positions, cash or other assets. Multiplying NAV by shares reproduces reported assets, but that accounting identity does not establish solvency. Reserve snapshot
Saturn publishes a Strategy-LTV allocation rule intended to reduce STRC exposure during severe issuer stress. The retained data includes target STRC weights of 100%, 80%, 60%, 40% and 20% at progressively higher LTV bands, and a zero target at its final displayed cutoff. The available table does not resolve every boundary or intermediate band. A current Strategy NAV input has not been identified, so the current target band and compliance with it cannot be independently recomputed. Dynamic reserve documentation
Saturn describes Accountable proof-of-reserves work and a Chainlink NAV feed. A functioning independent attestation covering the current off-chain reserve was not established. Transparency documentation
Risks and limitations. STRC is preferred equity with discretionary income and market-value risk. The 95.33% residual cannot be treated as independently verified dollar reserves. USDat’s PYUSDx backing applies to the buffer, not to the STRC position. The carried 2.5 reflects concentration, custody dependence and incomplete reserve assurance.
3 · Liquidity & Exit — 2.0
Holders can sell shares on secondary markets or request conversion back to USDat through Saturn’s withdrawal process. Exiting into USDC can require a further USDat conversion. Current primary-route eligibility, processing time and size limits were not simulated; historical fills establish that withdrawals have occurred, not that any present holder has an immediate right to settle.
The two measured Ethereum Curve pools hold $59,685.84 combined: about $29.9K in sUSDat/USDC and $29.8K in sUSDat/frxUSD. The USDC pool recorded approximately $13,889 of 24-hour volume. Indicative router quotes are:
| Dollar notional offered | Quoted USDC proceeds | Proceeds / notional |
|---|---|---|
| $1,000 | $1,000.52 | 100.0520% |
| $10,000 | $10,003.23 | 100.0323% |
| $100,000 | $51,374.06 | 51.3741% |
| $500,000 | $72,069.23 | 14.4138% |
The input is dollar notional converted to sUSDat at the measured market price, rather than a count of shares or a valuation at NAV. Proceeds are indicative, include route swap effects and exclude gas. They should not be multiplied by NAV or have the separately quoted NAV discount deducted again. The 2% price-impact crossing lies between the $10K passing rung and $100K failing rung; an exact capacity was not located. Poor large quotes establish a size constraint, rather than an absolute maximum output or guaranteed fill. Quote snapshot
The $2.77M USDat buffer divided by $59.32M reported assets gives 4.67%. Across 697 readings in the trailing 30-day window, the buffer ratio ranged 0.21%–12.77%, with a 5.21% median; the current level was at the 35th percentile. The balance can change sharply through withdrawals and deposits.
Historically observed withdrawals of approximately $0.37M–$0.43M were paid from the liquid reserve. Those events do not establish that the current implementation bypasses the documented asynchronous queue. Saturn’s current repository describes queued withdrawal requests and processing. Once withdrawals require the off-chain reserve, settlement also depends on asset realization and operator action. Vault repository
Risks and limitations. Secondary execution is the measured binding constraint for a holder without a verified primary route. Liquidity & Exit 2.0 is carried from the recent assessment; primary access remains unmeasured and cannot improve that number. Buffer size is potential liquidity, not proof of a successful redemption. Large secondary sales suffer severe quoted losses, and no guaranteed settlement deadline was established for off-chain realization.
4 · Dependencies — 2.5
The dominant economic path is sUSDat → Saturn’s STRC position → Strategy Inc. Strategy’s Bitcoin balance sheet affects its ability to service preferred claims, but STRC is not a direct claim on Bitcoin or a contractual Bitcoin redemption instrument. The separate liquid-buffer path is sUSDat → USDat → PYUSDx → PYUSD. USDat’s reassessed implementation matches verified source, and its zero alternative-asset accessor is valid. Upstream custody and eligible-holder conversion still require verification; those constraints apply when realizing this buffer. These are parallel reserve exposures, not one serial chain through USDat into STRC.
The October 12 Strategy disclosure incorporated in the STRC assessment records $192.4M of STRC repurchases, $354.8M remaining authorization and a $99.88 closing price. Separate USD Cash fell to $640.5M, while the restricted USD Reserve remained $4.88B. The cash pockets have different uses and cannot be combined into freely available buyback funds.
Saturn contributes custody, reserve reporting and withdrawal-processing dependence. STRC price support contributes issuer dependence: repurchases are discretionary and finite, and a near-par stock price is not a redemption right.
Risks and limitations. Changes in Strategy’s funding, dividend decisions or market price can reach most of the vault’s value. The USDat buffer provides a different reserve path but retains Saturn governance exposure. The carried 2.5 reflects the dominant STRC concentration and dependence on operator-managed realization.
5 · Contract & Admin — 3.5
The Ethereum vault is a UUPS deployment. Its reported admin role resolves to the same SaturnTimelock that administers USDat. Retained authority observations show a five-day minimum delay, self-administration and permissionless execution of matured operations. UUPS upgrade authorization runs through the vault’s roles; a zero proxy-admin slot does not mean the contract is immutable.
| Component | Ethereum address |
|---|---|
| sUSDat vault | 0xD166337499E176bbC38a1FBd113Ab144e5bd2Df7 |
| USDat returned by the vault’s asset accessor | 0x23238f20b894f29041f48D88eE91131C395Aaa71 |
| Live vault implementation | 0x2b7074cf6681382b70e239063931ebe83c0f4e0a |
| Implementation listed in issuer repository | 0x2005e0ca201a37694125ff267ae57872bea0a0ce |
| SaturnTimelock | 0xfD5782E3BFF366601da3973aE30C583dE4F08A67 |
| Observed proposer and canceller | 0x610182581C93687Ca03F4a8E7f124f8cEC616820 |
The issuer repository disagrees with the measured live implementation address. Its reproducible audited-code proof names the older implementation; it does not establish the current implementation’s source identity. The live implementation has not been independently source-matched, diffed against the published one or mapped to a current audit. Issuer repository, retained observations
Saturn publishes contract audit materials. Their presence does not establish current deployed-code coverage, and privileged-role coverage and bug-bounty coverage remain unverified. The documented architecture includes a separately upgradeable withdrawal queue and privileged processing/compliance roles; that complete authority surface has not been walked for the current deployment.
Risks and limitations. The same observed address can propose and cancel operations. No on-chain signing quorum is visible; the inherited Fireblocks 2-of-3 representation cannot be verified from an EOA-format address. Candidate checks do not enumerate all role holders. Five days is a setting that can itself be changed through a delayed action, and its usefulness depends on exit availability. Ethereum findings do not assess documented BNB or Monad deployments. Contract & Admin 3.5 incorporates the unmatched implementation, without treating it as evidence of malicious code or an observed exploit.
6 · Issuer — 5.0
Saturn Labs is the project name. Its interface operator is Saturn Global Capital Investments Ltd., a British Virgin Islands limited company. BVI law governs; the terms generally require confidential, single-arbitrator BVI IAC arbitration after a 60-day informal process. Class actions are waived and a six-month claim-filing limit applies, subject to exceptions. Terms, §§21–22
The product depends on the operator’s reserve disclosures and fulfillment of withdrawals. Public information distinguishes on-chain USDat from the off-chain STRC claim, but independent reserve assurance remains incomplete. Historical fulfilled transactions establish operational activity rather than universal holder recourse.
Risks and limitations. Accountable legal principals, beneficial ownership, entity financial audit and an enforceable direct reserve claim remain unverified. Issuer 5.0 is carried, not re-derived against the current terms and disclosures. Contract audits and administrative controls are assessed under Contract & Admin.
Who this is for
Eligible holders seeking Strategy preferred-stock income exposure who can accept principal drawdowns, custody dependence and operational withdrawal risk. It is poorly suited to a cash reserve, a large position requiring immediate secondary liquidation, or a holder who needs independently verified assets and a guaranteed settlement date.
What to watch
- The dollar buffer and buffer/total-assets ratio together; deposits and withdrawals can move both rapidly.
- Quotes at the intended exit size, and a primary withdrawal simulation for the actual holder.
- A source match and independent review of the live implementation, including queue and compliance authority.
- Independently attested custody positions and a functioning reserve/NAV feed.
- Strategy’s dividend decisions, STRC market price, buyback authorization and the distinct Cash and Reserve balances.
- Timelock operations and whether settlement can complete within the notice period.
Evidence and scope
October 14 numerical observations are retained at 03:45:41 UTC in the snapshot. They were read from the public dashboard; contract calls, code verification and withdrawal simulations were not independently rerun. The October 13 assessment supplies the authored scores and recent implementation finding. Historical withdrawal and NAV observations are inherited. Public repositories and terms were read on October 14; off-chain assets, legal recourse and remote controls remain incompletely assessed.
Revision history
- 2026-10-14 — measurements and presentation refreshed. Updated NAV, reserve split, buffer distribution and secondary quotes. Separated the STRC and USDat dependency paths, consolidated contract assurance under axis 5, and added the BVI operator and recourse terms. Scores unchanged.
- 2026-10-13 — implementation assessment updated. Contract & Admin 4.0 → 3.5; Overall 3.0. Incorporated the unmatched live implementation and October 12 STRC disclosure.
- 2026-10-04 — buffer and exit assessment refreshed. Recorded buffer recovery and implementation-address change; Liquidity & Exit remained 2.0.
- 2026-09-09 — six-axis assessment adopted. Added Backing 2.5 and Dependencies 2.5.
- 2026-08-23–24 — reserve and withdrawal observations refreshed. Issuer 5.0; recorded substantial recovery from July’s NAV drawdown and a buffer-funded withdrawal.
- 2026-07-13 — drawdown assessment updated. Recorded NAV approximately 10.7% below issuance reference.